The Moderna COVID Vaccine was created on Jan 13, 2020. This was one month before the first recorded US COVID death. Ten months was mainly spent on trials and statistical proving how effective vaccine was effective. Experts were very certain that the potential vaccines would be safe. Clearly the effectiveness testing and verification should be much faster. If we know the vaccines are safe there should be a process volunteer process to prove effectiveness in months.
China and Russia used their own rapidly developed vaccines for their own militaries in July and August.
The COVID vaccines are coming out now. We cannot redo the actions around this Pandemic. However, there are other ways we MUST prepare for the next possible pandemics.
We know there are about 50-100 virus families that might be able to trigger a pandemic. We could spend $3 billion to pre-make vaccines against all of the pandemic potential viruses. This money would get possible vaccines on the shelf and ready to be deployed once one of those specific viruses was found to be spreading. This would save 5 months.
Global Social Media Monitoring Could Save 1-2 Months
The fits news about a mysterious illness in Wuhan started emerging in December 2019. Taiwan sent their own investigators. Taiwan started inspecting plane passengers coming from Wuhan December 31,2019. We need to setup social media monitoring of all countries. This was how Taiwan noticed messages about a mystery disease. We do not wait for any country to identify and then admit they have a dangerous disease spreading.
The 2005 SARS impacted countries (Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea. Thailand) had very effective rapid pandemic response command centers ready for COVID-19. All countries need to learn and pay to create these pandemic commands. The fully scaled-up testing and contact tracing needs to be ready for next time.
Routine Blood Test Monitoring of Blood Donations Could Detect Spreading Viruses 2+ Months Earlier
Blood tests of donated blood found that coronavirus was in the USA by December, 2019.
Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020
Samples from 7,389 routine blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from December 13, 2019 to January 17, 2020, from donors resident in nine states (California, Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin) were tested at CDC for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Of the 7,389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing. Eighty-four of 90 had neutralizing activity, 1 had S1 binding activity, and 1 had receptor binding domain / Ace2 blocking activity over 50%, suggesting the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies.
Over 1% of people in the USA had coronavirus by Dec 2019- Jan 2020.
We need to constantly monitor blood samples for potential pandemic viruses. Sampling 10,000 to 100,000 samples every month for every country. This would detect virus outbreaks at the 0.01% population level. If doubling time is once every 3-4 days. This would detect 6-7 doublings before over 1% level in December, 2019. This would push the detection a potential outbreak to early November, 2019 and maybe October, 2019.
Vaccine Clinical Trials for Phase 1, Phase 2 and Part of Phase 3 Can be Done Ahead of Time
Journal Cell – Pandemic vaccines: How are we going to be better prepared next time? by Florian Krammer
Krammer – Phase I clinical work and the larger, longer Phase II safety trials can be done ahead of time. All before the arrival of new pandemics. Some Phase III efficacy testing could be done before pandemics. We can check if the vaccines provoke the right immune response. We can make antigens in the research center and just test it and it would be inexpensive.
A Phase III trial if it were deemed necessary could be done in ten weeks.
Combining early detection, Taiwan Caliber Contact tracing, Fully Scaled Testing Capability and pre-made and prepared Vaccines against all potential pandemic viruses will mean complete global pandemic proofing and resistant.
With the blood tests and social media monitoring, we could detect a pandemic to the equivalent of Nov, 2019 in this timeline. The pre-made vaccines would be scaled up and we could be at our current emergency authorization level by the equivalent of February, 2020.
SOURCES- Foreign Policy, NY Mag Intelligencer, Clinical Infectious Disease, Journal Cell
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com